Walmart’s US sales miss flags fuel squeeze despite e-commerce and ad growth
US comparable sales rose 2.6%, below the 3.8% estimate, as fuel costs pressured shopper spend. Walmart raised fiscal 2027 sales guidance but trimmed third-quarter EPS expectations; e-commerce grew 24% and Walmart Connect rose 43%.
What happened
Walmart missed US comparable-sales estimates as fuel costs pressured shoppers, while raising full-year guidance and cutting its third-quarter outlook. The
Key facts
- US same-store sales: +2.6% versus +3.8% estimate
- Average transaction spend: +1.1% versus +3.1% year earlier
- 11,000 items received price cuts
- Additional fuel-related costs: about $2 billion
- Tariff refunds expected: $2.9 billion
- Fiscal 2027 net sales growth outlook: 4%-5%
- Fiscal 2027 adjusted EPS outlook: $2.80-$2.87
- Third-quarter adjusted EPS outlook: $0.62-$0.64 versus $0.68 estimate
- Third-quarter net sales growth outlook: 3%-3.75%
- Store traffic growth: +1.5%
- E-commerce sales: +24%
- Walmart Connect growth: +43%
- India sourcing: over $40 billion
Why this matters
Rapid growth in e-commerce and Walmart Connect reinforces the strategic value of acquiring or partnering for retail media, fulfillment, and loyalty capabilities that diversify earnings beyond store sales.
What to watch
- US traffic, transaction count and average-ticket trends, especially among lower-income households.
- Fuel prices, food-at-home inflation, SNAP spending patterns and consumer-credit delinquencies.
- General-merchandise inventory levels, markdown activity and holiday preorder demand.
- Walmart Connect growth and evidence that advertising revenue is translating into consolidated margin expansion.
- Competitor promotional intensity and comparable-sales commentary from Target, Dollar General, Costco, Kroger and Amazon.
- Any further reduction in quarterly EPS guidance or widening gap between comparable-sales growth and consensus expectations.
- Increase targeted grocery and consumables price investments in markets where fuel costs and low-income customer stress are highest.
- Use Walmart Connect, marketplace seller services and delivery memberships to subsidize value messaging without matching all competitors' price cuts.
- Tighten discretionary inventory buys and expand opening-price-point assortments ahead of holiday demand.
- Emphasize unit growth, customer traffic, e-commerce profitability and advertising contribution in the next earnings update to defend the raised annual sales outlook.