Why India’s consumer confidence may not be readable in skirt lengths
A Times of India analysis finds the Western Hemline Index is a poor fit for India, where discretionary spending on beauty, eyewear, dining and other categories could offer more relevant clues to consumer sentiment.
The brand move
TOI examines whether fashion trends can signal consumer confidence, concluding the Western Hemline Index is unsuitable for India. Experts suggest tracking discretionary spending on cosmetics, eyewear, dining and other consumer categories instead.
The numbers
- Hemline Index introduced in 1926
- 2010 study analysed monthly hemline data from 1921 to 2009
- Fashion response to economic conditions estimated at roughly a three-year lag
Why it matters for the brand
Prioritize targets and partnerships in Indian discretionary categories that provide direct visibility into evolving consumer confidence.
What to track next
- Sustained growth in beauty, eyewear and dining transaction volumes alongside flat apparel average order values.
- A widening gap between premium entry-price SKU sell-through and higher-ticket fashion or durables conversion.
- UPI/card spending data showing increased frequency of discretionary purchases but lower average ticket sizes.
- Rising mall footfall and food-and-beverage sales without corresponding apparel full-price sell-through.
- Consumer confidence surveys improving in urban cohorts while value-fashion discounting remains elevated.
- Retailer earnings commentary shifting from broad demand recovery to category- or city-specific consumption strength.
- Build a city- and income-cohort-level discretionary-spend index using beauty, eyewear, dining, accessories, personal care and entertainment data.
- Separate affordable-premium purchase frequency from high-ticket discretionary conversion in demand forecasting.
- Use loyalty, payment and footfall data to identify whether consumers are trading up, trading down or substituting across categories.
- Prioritize smaller-ticket premium bundles, refill formats, gifting and financing options before materially increasing high-ticket inventory.
- Benchmark sentiment signals across metros, tier-2 cities and aspirational consumer cohorts rather than applying a single national fashion indicator.
The counter-case
Replacing the Hemline Index with a broader discretionary-spending basket may sound more India-specific but can create a noisier and less interpretable proxy. Beauty, eyewear and dining demand are shaped by urbanisation, discounting, social-media trends, weddings, credit availability, premiumisation and outlet expansion—not just confidence. A rise in spending may reflect higher prices or affluent consumers trading up while mass-market households remain under pressure.