Eternal, Nykaa lead retail-tech pack as India's market races toward Rs 215 trillion
A BCG-RAI report projects India's retail market to nearly triple to Rs 210-215 trillion by 2035 from Rs 90-95 trillion in 2025. Four enablers post strong Q3 FY26 numbers: Eternal revenue up 201.9% YoY to Rs 16,315 crore with quick commerce at breakeven, and Nykaa profit up 156% on 45.2% gross margins across 276 stores in 94 cities.
What happened
Zomato (Eternal) · BCG-RAI report projects India's retail market to hit Rs 215 trillion by 2035. Analysis of four retail-tech enablers—Eternal/Zomato, Nykaa,
Key facts
- Rs 210-215 trillion retail market by 2035
- Rs 90-95 trillion in 2025
- Eternal revenue Rs 16,315 crore up 201.9% YoY
- Eternal net profit Rs 102 crore up 102.9% YoY
- Eternal 200+ net stores added
- Eternal share up 13.5%
- Nykaa revenue Rs 2,873 crore up 27% YoY
- Nykaa net profit Rs 68 crore up 156%
- Nykaa gross margin 45.2%
- Nykaa EBITDA margin 8.0%
- Nykaa 276 stores across 94 cities
- Nykaa share up 31.7%
Why this matters
The BCG-RAI Rs 210-215 trillion trajectory plus visible profitability inflection among enablers signals a widening valuation gap that favors acquiring sub-scale omnichannel and quick-commerce assets before margins normalize sector-wide.
What to watch
- Q4 FY26 sequential (QoQ) revenue growth vs YoY to strip base effects
- Blinkit sustained positive contribution margin beyond breakeven
- Nykaa same-store sales and new-city unit economics
- Any regulatory move on quick-commerce labor or FDI in inventory-led retail
- Consumer discretionary spending prints and urban demand indicators
- Track Eternal/Blinkit dark-store expansion announcements and quick-commerce take-rate guidance
- Watch Nykaa store-count and gross-margin trajectory for signs of offline scaling economics
- Monitor competitor funding rounds (Zepto, Swiggy Instamart) for burn-rate response
- Model TAM capture share assumptions embedded in current sell-side price targets