Himachal apple crop forecast to fall 30%, keeping prices high until September
Himachal Pradesh’s 2026 apple output is projected at 493,465 tonnes, versus 699,876 tonnes last year. The shortfall is expected to sustain elevated wholesale prices and push grocers toward imports ahead of the festive season.
What happened
retail-company · A projected 30% drop in Himachal apple output, driven by adverse weather and reduced chilling hours, will keep domestic prices elevated until
Key facts
- Himachal apple production projected at 493,465 tonnes (24.6 million boxes) in 2026, down nearly 30% from 699,876 tonnes in 2025
- Himachal meets about 37% of India's apple demand before the Jammu & Kashmir peak harvest
- India produces 2.5-2.7 million tonnes of apples annually; Jammu & Kashmir accounts for 60%
- Wholesale prices are ₹2,000-₹3,500 per 20-kg box, ₹500-₹800 above last year
- India's apple imports fell 29.5% to $316.84 million in FY26 from $449.74 million in FY25
- Washington apples trade at about ₹300 per kg wholesale
Why this matters
The supply disruption strengthens the strategic case for import-sourcing partnerships, diversified orchard procurement, and cold-chain capabilities ahead of festive-season demand.
What to watch
- Arrival volumes and mandi prices from Himachal versus last year through September.
- Import arrival data, landed cost trends, rupee movement, and any changes in apple import duties or phytosanitary restrictions.
- Weather conditions in Kashmir and other domestic producing regions that could either offset or deepen the Himachal deficit.
- Festive-season retail demand, especially premium-fruit gifting and modern-trade footfall.
- Apple shelf-price elasticity and substitution rates into bananas, pomegranates, pears, and citrus.
- Secure import allocations and cold-storage capacity before festive-season demand tightens.
- Use tiered assortment: imported/premium apples for affluent stores and smaller pack sizes or lower-grade domestic apples for value formats.
- Reduce apple-led promotions and shift produce promotions toward substitute fruits with better supply economics.
- Lock supplier quality specifications and shrink allowances, as tight supply can increase sorting losses and inconsistent grade availability.
- Reforecast produce gross-margin plans using higher landed costs, lower apple unit velocity, and greater import mix.