India retail to hit Rs 215 trillion by 2035, lifting Eternal, Nykaa, Delhivery, IndiaMART

A BCG-RAI report projects India's retail market to reach Rs 210-215 trillion by 2035, up from Rs 90-95 trillion in 2025, shifting value toward tech enablers. Eternal (Zomato) leads with Q3 FY26 revenue of Rs 16,315 crore (+201.9% YoY) and quick commerce nearing breakeven.

— FiledFri, 3 Jul, 2026, 05:47 IST·First seen Fri, 3 Jul, 2026, 05:46 IST·Source Financial Express · BrandWagon

What happened

Zomato (Eternal) · BCG-RAI report projects India's retail market to hit Rs 215 trillion by 2035, shifting value to tech enablers. Highlights four retail-tech

Key facts

  • Rs 210-215 trillion by 2035
  • Rs 90-95 trillion in 2025
  • revenue Rs 16,315 crore (+201.9% YoY)
  • net profit Rs 102 crore (+102.9% YoY)
  • 90 bps contribution margin
  • 130 bps EBITDA margin
  • 200+ net stores added
  • share price up 13.5%

Why this matters

A more-than-doubling retail TAM favors consolidation across logistics, quick commerce, and B2B marketplaces, making enablers with proven scale attractive acquisition or partnership targets as fragmented players seek positioning ahead of the 2035 opportunity.

What to watch

  • Eternal quick commerce achieving sustained positive EBITDA
  • New entrant or Reliance/Amazon aggressive pricing in quick commerce
  • Regulatory action on FDI or predatory pricing in e-commerce
  • Delhivery volume growth decoupling from broader retail growth
  • Consensus revisions in analyst TAM estimates post-report
  • Monitor Eternal quick-commerce contribution margin trajectory quarter-over-quarter for breakeven confirmation
  • Track competitor capex announcements in quick commerce and dark-store expansion
  • Watch Nykaa and Delhivery guidance updates referencing the BCG-RAI TAM figure
  • Position for volatility around FY26 earnings prints where TAM narrative meets actual unit economics

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