India's 15% gold duty hike seen cutting demand 60 tonnes, saving $2.5B in imports
Economists at CareEdge, Barclays and World Gold Council estimate the May 2026 duty hike to 15% could trim annual gold demand by ~60 tonnes and reduce imports by $2.5-9 billion, though smuggling risks and record international prices cloud the CAD benefit for FY27.
What happened
Government of India · India's gold and silver import duty hike to 15% from May 2026 could cut annual gold demand by 60 tonnes, saving $2.5 billion in imports,
Key facts
- 15% import duty
- effective May 13, 2026
- 60 tonnes demand cut
- $2.5 billion savings
- ₹24,000 crore
- 700-800 tonnes annual imports
- 9% cumulative hike
- 0.8% demand cut per 1% duty
- $6-9 billion import reduction
- 40 bps import growth cut per 1% price rise
- 4% import fall
- 35% March import decline
- 120% February rise
- $15 billion FY27 import bill
- 5-6 bps May inflation
- 10 bps June inflation
Why this matters
The duty-driven demand compression creates consolidation openings among sub-scale regional jewellers, while partnerships with refiners and recyclers hedge against import-dependency and smuggling exposure.