India's 15% Gold Tariff Hike Revives Smuggling, Squeezes Legal Jewellery Supply Chains

Doubling of gold import duty to 15% has pushed grey market discounts past $200/oz. Smuggled gold inflows could exceed 100 tonnes in 2026, undercutting banks, refiners and organised jewellery retailers reliant on legal channels.

— FiledWed, 10 Jun, 2026, 23:04 IST·First seen Wed, 10 Jun, 2026, 23:03 IST·Source Moneycontrol · Results

What happened

India Gold Market · India's doubling of gold import tariffs to 15% has revived smuggling, with grey market discounts exceeding $200/oz. Smuggled gold could top

Key facts

  • 15% import tariff
  • 100 metric tons (2026 est.)
  • $200/oz grey market discount
  • 4%+ discount

Why this matters

Scout acquisition targets among smaller refiners and regional jewellers facing duty-driven margin stress, but stress-test any deal against a multi-year grey market overhang scenario.

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