India's 15% gold tariff revives smuggling, squeezes legitimate jewellery channel
Doubling of gold import duty to 15% (18.45% all-in tax) has reopened a $200/oz grey market discount, with smuggling projected to top 100 tonnes in 2026 versus 20.4t in 2025. Banks, refiners and organised jewellery retailers face uneconomic refining margins and an estimated $2.65bn in lost duty revenue.
What happened
India Gold Market · India's doubling of gold import tariffs to 15% has revived smuggling, projected to exceed 100 tonnes in 2026. Grey market discounts above
Key facts
- 15% import tariff
- 100 tonne smuggling 2026
- $14.35 billion
- $2.65 billion lost tariffs
- 18.45% total tax
- $200/oz grey market discount
- 20.4 tonne smuggled 2025
- 45.6 tonne April imports
Why this matters
Expect distressed refining capacity and stressed mid-tier jewellers as uneconomic margins bite — a window for consolidation, vertical integration into bullion banking, or acquiring regional brands with authenticated supply chains at compressed multiples.
Also reported by
- The Hindu BusinessLine — Same time