India's gold import duty hike could cut 2026 demand by up to 60 tonnes: WGC
WGC estimates the effective import duty jump from 6% to 15% may trim jewellery, bar and coin demand by 50-60 tonnes (~10% YoY) in 2026. Record prices near Rs 1.8 lakh/10g add pressure on jewellery retailers, though long-term consumer affinity stays intact.
What happened
World Gold Council · India's hike in effective gold import duty from 6% to 15% could cut jewellery, bar and coin demand by 50-60 tonnes (~10% YoY) in 2026, per
Key facts
- import duty 6% to 15%
- 50-60 tonnes demand cut
- ~10% YoY decline
- record Rs 1.8 lakh/10g
- Rs 1.4 lakh end-June
- $3,960-$5,600
Why this matters
The duty-driven demand softening and price-led consolidation risk create openings to acquire stressed smaller jewellers and expand into affordable, low-gold-content and organized-retail formats that gain share as the market tightens.
What to watch
- Monthly gold import and customs seizure data
- Domestic gold price vs Rs 1.8 lakh/10g threshold
- Union Budget 2026 duty commentary or rollback signals
- Listed jeweller same-store sales and volume-vs-value splits in quarterly results
- Wedding/festive season demand prints (Q3-Q4 FY26)
- Organized jewellers push lightweight, lower-caratage and studded lines to protect footfalls
- Retailers lean on exchange/old-gold and gold-savings schemes to sustain volumes
- Accelerated shift toward branded/organized players as informal channel gains raise trust premium
- Margin management via making-charge adjustments and inventory hedging against price volatility