India's retail market projected to hit Rs 215 trillion by 2035; Eternal, Nykaa's Q3 FY26 results resurface retail-tech buzz

Resurfacing a BCG-RAI report from late December 2025, which projected India's retail market to more than double to Rs 210-215 trillion by 2035 from Rs 90-95 trillion in 2025. The report also recapped Eternal and Nykaa's Q3 FY26 results—Eternal revenue up 201.9% YoY to Rs 16,315 cr, Nykaa profit up 156% to Rs 68 cr with 276 stores across 94 cities.

— FiledSat, 18 Jul, 2026, 08:32 IST·First seen Sat, 18 Jul, 2026, 08:31 IST·Source Financial Express · BrandWagon

What happened

Zomato (Eternal) · BCG-RAI report projects India's retail market to hit Rs 215 trillion by 2035, spotlighting four retail-tech enablers—Eternal, Nykaa,

Key facts

  • Rs 210-215 trillion retail market by 2035
  • Rs 90-95 trillion in 2025
  • Eternal revenue Rs 16,315 crore +201.9% YoY
  • Eternal net profit Rs 102 crore +102.9% YoY
  • Nykaa revenue Rs 2,873 crore +27% YoY
  • Nykaa net profit Rs 68 crore +156%
  • Nykaa 276 stores across 94 cities
  • Eternal share +13.5% YoY
  • Nykaa share +31.7% YoY

Why this matters

The projected doubling of India's retail TAM makes Eternal and Nykaa attractive consolidation anchors—watch for M&A and partnership opportunities in adjacent categories as leaders race to lock in share ahead of 2035.

What to watch

  • Eternal/Blinkit contribution margin and adjusted EBITDA trajectory in Q4 FY26
  • Nykaa same-store sales and offline unit economics disclosures
  • Quick-commerce funding announcements or down-rounds signaling consolidation
  • Regulatory scrutiny on quick-commerce labor, FDI, or predatory pricing
  • Consumer demand data from Tier-2/3 cities validating the Rs 215T projection
  • Eternal to deepen dark-store density in Tier-1/2 cities and expand into new verticals (10-min general merchandise, pharma)
  • Nykaa to accelerate offline store count and push private-label to protect margins
  • Competitors (Zepto, Instamart, Amazon/Flipkart) to escalate discounting and delivery-time wars
  • Analysts to raise TAM-based target prices, inviting capital into listed and pre-IPO retail-tech
  • New PE/VC rounds and potential IPO filings from mid-tier D2C and quick-commerce names