India's sugar exports to halt for years as El Nino, ethanol mandate drain supply
India faces a multi-year sugar export freeze as El Nino cuts cane yields and ethanol blending diverts feedstock. Output forecast at 27.9M tons vs 28.5M tons consumption; inventories hit 30-year low. FMCG, confectionery and beverage input costs face sustained pressure; imports possible by 2027-28.
What happened
Indian Sugar Industry · India's sugar exports likely halted for 3+ seasons as El Nino threatens cane output and ethanol blending demand surges. Domestic
Key facts
- 6.8 million tons avg exports
- 800,000 tons exported this year
- 27.9 million tons forecast output
- 28.5 million tons consumption
- 3.5 million tons inventory
- 30 billion litres ethanol demand by 2039-40
- 85% ethanol fuel
- 40% below avg June rains
Why this matters
Scout acquisition or long-term offtake deals with Brazilian and Thai sugar producers to secure multi-year supply before competitors bid up assets ahead of India's 2027-28 import pivot.
Also reported by
- BL · Consumer & Economy — Same time