ITC Q4 preview: Cigarette tax hike clouds earnings; FMCG seen growing 10%
Brokerages expect flat ~₹17,900 cr revenue and 3.5% EBITDA decline as Feb 2026 cigarette tax hike pressures volumes (cigarette revenue -3%, EBIT -7%). FMCG segment cushions with ~10% growth; agri profits recover despite -10% revenue. Stock down 28% YoY at ₹310.30.
What happened
ITC reports Q4FY26 results today; brokerages expect flat revenue and margin pressure as February 2026 cigarette tax hike weighs on volumes, while FMCG grows
Key facts
- ₹310.30 stock price
- 5% decline 3M
- 24% decline 6M
- 28% decline 1Y
- cigarette revenue -3%
- cigarette EBIT -7%
- FMCG growth ~10%
- agri revenue -10%
- EBITDA -3.5% YoY
- EBITDA margin ~34%
- revenue ₹17,951.3 cr (Elara)
- revenue ₹17,897 cr (Axis)
- Q3 PAT ₹5,088.83 cr
- Q3 revenue ₹19,359.46 cr
- interim dividend ₹6.5/share
Why this matters
FMCG outperformance amid tobacco weakness strengthens the case for accelerating non-cigarette M&A to diversify the earnings mix and reduce regulatory exposure.