Jefferies backs Polycab and Finolex despite UltraTech’s Ultravolt wires entry
Jefferies retained Buy ratings on Polycab and Finolex Cables after UltraTech announced an ₹1,800 crore wires capex under Ultravolt. The broker sees Polycab’s scale and cable-entry barriers limiting disruption, while Finolex could benefit from optical-fibre pricing and new capacity.
What happened
Polycab India · Jefferies retained Buy ratings on Polycab and Finolex despite UltraTech’s Ultravolt wires entry. It sees Polycab protected by scale and
Key facts
- Jefferies target price: Polycab Rs 8,300
- Jefferies target price: Finolex Cables Rs 1,410
- Potential upside: Polycab 34%
- Potential upside: Finolex Cables 15%
- Polycab stock fell about 10% in five sessions
- Indian cables and wires market: about Rs 1 lakh crore in FY26
- UltraTech announced capex: Rs 1,800 crore
- UltraTech potential industry sales share: 5-6% by FY30
- Polycab cables mix: 70-75%
- Polycab PAT CAGR forecast: about 22% for FY26-29
- Finolex communication business optical-fibre share: about 75%
- Finolex communication EBIT margin: 23% in Jun 2026 quarter
- Optical fibre price rose from $5-6/km in December 2025 to $17-18/km by mid-2026
- Optical fibre price moderated to $11-13/km
- Finolex fibre draw capacity target: 8 million km by December 2026 quarter
- Additional Finolex capacity estimated quarterly sales: Rs 200-250 crore
- Finolex electricals share of sales: about 85%
- Finolex sales CAGR forecast: about 17% for FY26-29
- Finolex EBITDA CAGR forecast: about 22% for FY26-29
Why this matters
Strategic buyers should view the wires market as increasingly contested, with distribution reach, cable capabilities and optical-fibre exposure becoming key differentiators for partnership or acquisition targets.
What to watch
- Ultravolt launch timing, SKU breadth, plant commissioning schedule and stated utilization targets.
- UltraTech dealer additions, distributor overlap with Polycab/Finolex and evidence of bundled cement-wire sales.
- Monthly or quarterly wire pricing, dealer commissions, credit terms and incumbent gross-margin trends.
- UltraTech's progress toward its FY30 5-6% industry sales-share target versus early regional market-share data.
- Polycab and Finolex capacity announcements, advertising spend, channel inventory and volume-growth divergence.
- Copper and aluminum price volatility, which can mask underlying pricing discipline and affect working-capital needs.
- UltraTech is likely to prioritize dealer onboarding, electrician/contractor engagement, product certifications and regional launches before pursuing national scale.
- Polycab may increase channel incentives, brand spending and capacity investments while emphasizing premium, safety-led and B2B cable categories.
- Finolex Cables may use incremental capacity and improving optical-fibre economics to protect distributor relationships and diversify earnings beyond building wires.
- Other building-material companies may revisit electrical adjacencies, raising the strategic value of dealer-network ownership and bundled home-construction offerings.