SBI flags 15% gold duty risk: higher domestic prices, grey-market leakage, jewellery sourcing squeeze
SBI Research warns India's gold import duty hike to 15% (from 6%) could push up domestic prices and divert supplies to grey channels, pressuring CAD after $57.9bn FY25 and projected $72.4bn FY26 imports. A 5% volume decline may soften, not offset, the hit to organised jewellery retailers' sourcing economics.
What happened
SBI Research warns that India's gold import duty hike to 15% may raise domestic prices, divert supplies to grey channels and widen CAD pressures, though recent
Key facts
- 15%
- 6%
- $57.9 billion FY25
- $72.4 billion FY26
- 5% volume decline
Why this matters
Window opens for consolidation as smaller unorganised jewellers buckle under duty-led working capital strain—scout bolt-on regional targets and revisit backward-integration or bullion-banking partnerships to de-risk sourcing.