Sugar hits ₹75-80/kg in Maharashtra as lower cane output and stockpiling tighten supply
Experts attribute the sugar-price surge to weaker sugarcane production, a shorter mill-crushing season and trader stockpiling—not ethanol diversion. Cane acreage and output have declined, while policy changes may take 30-36 months to improve supply.
What happened
Indian Sugar Industry · Indian sugar prices are rising as cane output and crushing seasons decline and traders stockpile supplies. Experts reject ethanol
Key facts
- Loose sugar price: Rs 75-80 per kg in Chhatrapati Sambhajinagar
- Maharashtra mill crushing season reduced from about 150 days to nearly 100 days
- Fair and Remunerative Price for cane: Rs 3,650 per tonne
- Sugar minimum support price: Rs 3,100 per tonne
- Initial sugar production estimate: 390 lakh tonnes; actual output: 310 lakh tonnes
- Sugar exports permitted: about 8 lakh tonnes
- Mills may add 15-20 lakh tonnes of sugar monthly after crushing begins
- Sugarcane cultivation area fell from 5,885.32 thousand hectares in 2022-23 to 5,449.93 thousand hectares in 2024-25
- Sugarcane output fell from 490,533.35 thousand tonnes in 2022-23 to 454,610.97 thousand tonnes in 2024-25
- New production policies would take about 30-36 months to show results
Why this matters
Sustained cane-supply constraints could increase the strategic value of backward integration, long-term mill partnerships and investments in alternative sweetener or supply-chain assets.
What to watch
- Maharashtra and national sugarcane acreage, rainfall and reservoir data ahead of the next planting and crushing cycles.
- Mill-crushing duration, cane arrivals, sugar recovery rates and official production estimates.
- Wholesale-to-retail price spreads in Maharashtra and neighboring states.
- Government action on stockholding limits, anti-hoarding enforcement, exports, minimum sale quotas or buffer-stock releases.
- Ethanol policy changes, despite current evidence that ethanol diversion is not the primary driver.
- Festival-season demand, institutional buying and inventory accumulation by traders and large food manufacturers.
- Increase procurement coverage and diversify sourcing beyond spot-market Maharashtra suppliers.
- Build inventory selectively for high-velocity sugar SKUs, while avoiding excessive exposure to a later policy-driven price correction.
- Reduce deep discounting on sugar-led festival bundles and review private-label pricing weekly.
- Prepare cost-pass-through plans for bakery, confectionery, dairy desserts, beverages and ready-to-eat categories.
- Use smaller pack sizes, targeted promotions and cross-category bundles to protect household affordability and basket conversion.
- Monitor distributor inventory days and unusual bulk buying to detect localized supply tightening.