Tomato Retail Prices Jump 24% YoY to ₹43.70/kg; Relief Unlikely Before August
Heat and erratic monsoons in Maharashtra, Karnataka and UP have pushed tomato retail prices up 24% YoY and 26% MoM, with Azadpur wholesale rates up 66%. Crisil sees elevated prices through June-August, squeezing thali costs and grocery retailers' fresh-produce margins.
What happened
India tomato market · Tomato retail prices surged 24% YoY to ₹43.70/kg as heat and erratic monsoons hit Maharashtra, Karnataka, UP supplies. Crisil expects
Key facts
- ₹43.70/kg retail
- +24% YoY
- +26% MoM
- ₹2,700/quintal Azadpur
- +66% YoY wholesale
- ₹34,000/quintal Madanapalle
- 48.43% tomato inflation May
- 4.78% food inflation
- 21.46 mn tonnes 2025-26 projection
Why this matters
Accelerate diligence on cold-chain, contract-farming and tomato-processing tuck-ins—climate-driven produce volatility is now a recurring thesis, and assets de-risking fresh supply will command scarcity premiums into the next harvest cycle.
What to watch
- Azadpur and Koyambedu daily mandi arrivals (tonnes/day)
- IMD monsoon progression over Maharashtra-Karnataka belt in next 3 weeks
- CPI vegetables sub-index June print
- Retail price crossing ₹60/kg psychological threshold
- Government export ban or import facilitation announcements
- Crisil/Care thali cost index monthly update
- Modern trade chains (DMart, Reliance Retail, Zepto, Blinkit) shift to dynamic pricing on fresh and push private-label processed tomato (puree, ketchup) promotions
- QSR and thali operators (Haldiram, Barbeque Nation, Rebel Foods) reformulate menus or invoke surge surcharges
- FMCG majors (HUL, Nestle, ITC) with tomato-input SKUs (ketchup, soups, ready-meals) lock forward contracts and consider 3-5% price hikes
- Quick-commerce platforms absorb costs to protect AOV, accepting near-term unit-economics hit
- Government likely to nudge NAFED/NCCF to sell subsidized tomatoes in metros if prices cross ₹60/kg