WGC sees gold range-bound near $4,100/oz in H2 2026; India duty hike could cut demand ~10%
The World Gold Council expects gold to hover around $4,100/oz in H2 2026, with upside to $4,500-5,000/oz if risks intensify. A proposed India import duty rise from 6% to 15% could trim jewellery, bar and coin demand by 50-60t (~10% y/y), pressuring the roughly 800t/year net market.
What happened
World Gold Council · WGC sees gold range-bound near $4,100/oz in H2 2026 with upside to $4,500-5,000/oz. India's import duty hike from 6% to 15% could cut
Key facts
- $4,100/oz
- $4,500/oz
- $5,000/oz
- India net demand 800t/year
- import duty 6% to 15%
- jewellery/bar/coin demand cut 50t-60t (~10% y/y)
Why this matters
A structural India duty shift could compress the ~800t/year net market, favoring diversification into non-Indian demand centers or recycled-gold sourcing to hedge volume risk.
What to watch
- India Union Budget / customs notification on gold import duty
- Gold spot breaking above $4,500/oz or below $3,800/oz
- Q2-Q3 2026 India festival/wedding season demand prints
- Smuggling and grey-market volume estimates from trade bodies
- WGC quarterly demand trends updates and ETF flow data
- Jewellers accelerate lightweight/lower-karat and gold-exchange schemes to preserve volumes
- Retailers push lease/EMI financing and buyback programs to offset affordability hit
- Organized players expand to capture share from smuggling-exposed unorganized segment
- Hedging desks tighten inventory and lock forward prices amid range-bound but volatile spot