Brokerages back Titan, Kalyan, Senco as 15% gold duty hike favours organised jewellers
Antique and JM Financial retain Buy ratings across branded jewellers, arguing lightweight designs, exchange buying and BIS hallmarking tilt share toward organised players despite the duty hike. Targets: Titan Rs 4,763/4,900, Kalyan Rs 600, Senco Rs 475.
What happened
Titan Company · Following India's gold import duty hike to 15%, Antique and JM Financial retain Buy ratings on Titan, Kalyan and Senco Gold, citing lightweight
Key facts
- gold import duty 15%
- Titan FY26 jewellery sales +45%
- Titan EBITDA +39%
- gold prices +56%
- Senco sales +30%
- Senco EBITDA +135%
- gold imports -33% Feb 2026
- -50% Mar 2026
- FY26 imports -5% YoY
- Titan target Rs 4,763/Rs 4,900
- Senco target Rs 475
- Kalyan target Rs 600
Why this matters
Duty-driven formalisation is squeezing unorganised players, opening a window to acquire or partner with regional jewellers lacking hallmarking scale and exchange-buying infrastructure.
What to watch
- Gold spot price and INR moves post duty hike
- Q3/Q4 jewellery segment revenue and EBITDA prints vs +45%/+135% guidance
- GST/duty policy revisions or festive demand data
- Store expansion pace for Kalyan and Senco
- Unorganised-to-organised shift evidence in industry volume data
- Monitor management commentary on same-store growth and studded mix at upcoming quarterly calls
- Track competing brokerage revisions to confirm consensus Buy stance
- Watch inventory hedging disclosures to gauge duty cost absorption
- Assess promotional/exchange-scheme intensity as demand-defence signal