Brokerages back Titan, Kalyan, Senco as organised jewellers brace for 15% gold duty hike
Antique and JM Financial retain positive ratings, arguing organised jewellers are well-positioned for India's 15% gold import duty hike. Resilient demand via lightweight designs and exchange-led purchases (Titan gold exchange ~50%) cushions the impact. Titan FY26 jewellery sales seen +45%, Senco EBITDA +135%.
What happened
Titan Company · Brokerages Antique and JM Financial retain positive ratings on Titan, Kalyan and Senco, arguing organised jewellers are well-prepared for
Key facts
- 15% gold import duty
- Titan FY26 jewellery sales +45%
- Titan EBITDA +39%
- gold prices +56%
- Senco sales +30%
- Senco EBITDA +135%
- imports -33% MoM Feb 2026
- imports -50% Mar 2026
- FY26 imports ~-5% YoY
- gold volumes 720-770 tonnes
- Titan gold exchange ~50%
Why this matters
The duty hike further tilts share toward organised players, opening acquisition and consolidation opportunities as smaller unorganised jewellers struggle to absorb the cost.
What to watch
- Official confirmation and effective date of the 15% gold import duty
- Titan/Senco/Kalyan quarterly volume and same-store-sales prints
- Gold price trajectory and hedging disclosures
- Smuggling/grey-market flow indicators and unorganised sector stress signs
- Wedding/festive season demand data as affordability test
- Titan/Kalyan likely to accelerate gold-exchange and scheme-led selling to insulate customers from price shock
- Organised players front-load inventory before duty implementation, boosting near-term reported sales
- Push toward lightweight and studded mix to protect gross margins and ticket affordability
- Brokerages issue follow-up notes reaffirming or trimming FY26 estimates post quarterly volume data