India’s light-vehicle market is forecast to reach 8.2 million units by 2035, resurfacing a February 2024 S&P Global Mobility projection
India’s light-vehicle sales were 35% above 2019 levels in 2023, outperforming major peers. Resurfacing a February 2024 forecast, S&P Global Mobility projected sales of 4.9 million units in 2024 and 5.1 million in 2025, with India’s global market share rising from 5.5% to 8% by 2035.
What happened
India’s light-vehicle sales were 35% above pre-pandemic levels in 2023, among the strongest major-market recoveries. S&P Global Mobility forecasts India’s
Key facts
- India light-vehicle sales were 35% above CY19 levels in CY23
- China light-vehicle sales were 2.6% above CY19 levels in CY23
- India light-vehicle market forecast: 4.9 million units in CY24, 5.1 million in CY25, and 8.2 million in CY35
- India global light-vehicle market share forecast to rise from 5.5% in CY23 to 8% in CY35
- India market growth: 26.4% in 2021, 23.7% in 2022, 8.1% in 2023, and forecast 3.4% in 2024
What changed
India’s light-vehicle sales were 35% above pre-pandemic levels in 2023, among the strongest major-market recoveries. S&P Global Mobility forecasts India’s market to reach 8.2 million units by 2035, lifting its global share to 8%.
Why this matters
India’s light-vehicle market is accelerating well beyond pre-pandemic levels, creating a larger runway for dealership capacity, aftersales networks and localized supply chains through 2035.
What to watch
- Monthly passenger-vehicle wholesales and retail registrations versus the 4.9 million 2024 and 5.1 million 2025 forecasts.
- Auto-loan rates, approval rates, delinquencies and loan-to-value trends.
- SUV share, average selling prices and entry-level hatchback demand.
- OEM dealer additions, service-center openings and capacity-expansion announcements.
- EV penetration, charging deployment, battery prices and changes to purchase incentives.
Also reported by
- Business Standard (via Wayback) — Same time