Jefferies raises Reliance target to Rs 1,705 despite trimming retail EBITDA forecasts

Jefferies retained its Buy call on Reliance Industries and lifted its target price from Rs 1,675 to Rs 1,705. The brokerage cut Reliance Retail EBITDA estimates for FY27-FY29 by 1% after slower core growth and margin pressure from hyperlocal-commerce investments.

— Source publishedTue, 21 Jul, 2026, 12:18 IST·First seen Tue, 21 Jul, 2026, 12:40 IST·Source Financial Express · BrandWagon

What happened

Jefferies retained its Buy rating on Reliance Industries and raised its target to Rs 1,705. It said Reliance Retail missed estimates as core growth slowed and

Key facts

  • Jefferies target price for Reliance Industries: Rs 1,705, raised from Rs 1,675
  • Implied Reliance Industries upside: 28%
  • Reliance retail EBITDA estimates for FY27-FY29 cut by 1%
  • First AI data-centre capacity expected by end-CY2026

Why this matters

The margin drag from hyperlocal-commerce investments highlights a strategic trade-off between funding rapid-delivery capabilities and preserving Retail’s near-term earnings profile.

What to watch

  • Quarterly Reliance Retail revenue growth versus EBITDA-margin movement.
  • Management commentary on hyperlocal-commerce losses, order density, fulfillment costs and break-even timelines.
  • Competitive promotional intensity from quick-commerce platforms and large-format value retailers.
  • Growth in private-label mix and gross-margin performance.
  • Same-store sales growth and footfall trends across core retail formats.
  • Any further brokerage revisions to FY27-FY29 retail EBITDA forecasts or segment valuation multiples.
  • Prioritize order density and repeat purchases in hyperlocal catchments over rapid geographic expansion.
  • Increase use of existing Reliance Retail stores as fulfillment nodes to reduce dark-store and last-mile capital intensity.
  • Push private labels, sourcing efficiencies and targeted promotions to defend gross margin while retaining value positioning.
  • Communicate segment-level KPIs such as digital sales mix, fulfillment costs, customer acquisition cost and EBITDA-margin trajectory to support investor confidence.
  • Potentially moderate discretionary retail expansion if hyperlocal investments do not show improving contribution margins.