Large-format malls to account for 56% of India’s new retail supply through 2031: JLL
JLL forecasts 51.1 million sq ft of new shopping-mall supply in India over the next five years, taking total mall stock to 143.2 million sq ft by 2031. Large-format developments are expected to lead the expansion across key metros.
The opening
JLL forecasts 51.1 million square feet of shopping-mall supply in India over the next five years, with large-format malls comprising 56 per cent and total stock reaching 143.2 msf by 2031.
Store and format facts
- 56 per cent
- 51.1 million square feet (msf)
- next five years
- 143.2 msf
- 2031
- 28.7 msf
- 30-35 per cent
- 9-10 msf
- 6.3 msf
- H1 2026
- 92.1 msf
- June 2026
- 11.2 per cent
- 15 per cent
- 7.9 msf
- 21 per cent
- 14 per cent
- April and June 2026
- 44 per cent
- 29 msf
- 15.1 msf
- 14.4 msf
- 48.6 msf
- 22 msf
- 21.6 msf
- 45.9 msf
What it means for the format
Use the coming large-format mall wave to identify acquisition, partnership, and anchor-tenant opportunities in high-growth metro catchments before supply is committed.
Next on the rollout
- Quarterly mall completions versus the 51.1 million sq ft forecast and the proportion delivered by large-format projects.
- Pre-commitment rates, anchor-store leasing and occupancy levels 12-18 months before opening.
- Retail sales growth, discretionary consumption, premiumization trends and store-network expansion by domestic and international brands.
- Rental growth, fit-out incentives, revenue-share clauses and vacancy trends by city and micro-market.
- New metro lines, road access, airport expansion and residential launches that alter mall catchment quality.
- Developer debt costs, REIT fundraising conditions, construction-cost inflation and project approval timelines.
- Performance divergence between newly opened destination malls and legacy enclosed malls.
- Prioritize leasing pipelines for large-format malls near metro corridors, airport zones, transit nodes and dense upper-middle-income catchments.
- Secure anchor tenants early across grocery, department stores, value fashion, multiplexes, family entertainment and destination F&B to protect project absorption.
- Retailers should negotiate multi-city expansion packages, using the upcoming supply wave to obtain lower base rents, fit-out contributions and turnover-linked lease structures.
- Mall owners should invest in omnichannel fulfillment, click-and-collect, experiential zones and food-led dwell-time strategies as physical stores increasingly serve both sales and logistics functions.
- Owners of aging malls should assess repositioning into mixed-use, outlet, entertainment, medical, education or last-mile-compatible formats before new Grade-A supply opens nearby.
The counter-case
The forecast may overstate deliverable supply: large malls are capital-intensive, face long approval and construction cycles, and are vulnerable to funding costs, tenant pre-commitment shortfalls and weak absorption outside the strongest micro-markets. E-commerce, quick commerce and consumers’ shift toward mixed-use/high-street destinations could also limit the productivity needed to support new large-format centers.