Reliance: Motilal, Jefferies, Nomura flag up to 28% upside after Jio IPO draft filed
Jio's SEBI draft filing targets a late-2026 listing at an Rs 11-12 trillion valuation, offering 270 million shares (2.9% dilution) across 524 million subscribers. Brokerages reiterate Buy on Reliance, with TPs of Rs 1,640-1,675 as retail pushes into manufacturing, exports and RCPL scaling.
What happened
Reliance Industries · Reliance AGM outlined growth across telecom, retail, AI and energy. Jio filed IPO draft with SEBI, targeting late-2026 listing. Retail
Key facts
- Jefferies TP Rs 1,675 (28% upside)
- Nomura TP Rs 1,640 (23.5%)
- Motilal TP Rs 1,655 (~26%)
- Jio valuation Rs 11-12 trillion
- 270 million shares
- 2.9% dilution
- 524 million subscribers
- FY26 revenue Rs 1,468.9 billion
Why this matters
The 2.9% Jio dilution (270 million shares across 524 million subscribers) sets a clear value-unlock template worth studying for portfolio spin-outs and partnership structuring ahead of a 2026 listing window.
What to watch
- SEBI approval progress and final DRHP terms
- Jio quarterly ARPU and net subscriber adds vs 524mn base
- Retail segment margin/export traction and RCPL revenue ramp
- Any revision to the Rs 11-12tn valuation band from bankers
- Broad Nifty/FII flow backdrop affecting large-cap re-rating appetite
- Additional brokerages reiterate/upgrade with SOTP-based TPs referencing Jio at Rs 11-12tn
- Reliance management guides on IPO structure, use of proceeds and retail/RCPL scaling milestones
- Anchor investor and pre-IPO placement chatter for Jio ahead of late-2026 listing
- Sell-side models shift to explicit sum-of-parts framing across telecom, retail, O2C