Weak monsoon threatens India's 2026-27 coffee crop with 4% output decline projected

Rain deficits of 29-45% across Kodagu, Chikmagaluru, Hassan and Wayanad have stressed Arabica and Robusta plantations. USDA projects India's 2026-27 output falling 4% to 3.68 lakh tonnes (6.14 million bags), with rising pest infestations compounding the shortfall for retail coffee brands.

— Source publishedThu, 18 Jun, 2026, 12:42 IST·First seen Thu, 18 Jun, 2026, 12:53 IST·Source BL · Consumer & Economy

What happened

Indian Coffee Industry · Weak southwest monsoon with 29-45% rain deficits in key coffee districts threatens India's 2026-27 coffee crop, with USDA projecting 4%

Key facts

  • 35% rain deficit Kodagu
  • 37% deficit Chikmagalur
  • 45% deficit Wayanad
  • 4% output decline projected
  • 6.14 million bags 2026-27
  • 3.68 lakh tonnes

Why this matters

Scout acquisitions or JV stakes in Vietnamese, Ethiopian, or Brazilian sourcing platforms to hedge India concentration risk before peers bid up alternative-origin assets.

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