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4G phones stage a comeback in India: shipments to grow 3% in 2026 while the overall market shrinks, share seen at 15% by 2027
Lava International says building a 5G phone under Rs 15,000 without compromising the experience has become extremely challenging, as record memory costs lift 4G's share of India shipments from 11% in 2025 to 13% this year, per Counterpoint Research.
The numbers
Figures from Times of India,
| Makers offering 4G in Rs 10,000-20,000 in 2025: | 2 |
|---|---|
| Makers offering 4G in Rs 10,000-20,000 in 2026: | 12 |
Why it matters for the brand
With 5G prices rising on record memory costs and 4G's share heading from 11% to 13% in 2026, keep 4G models in the Rs 10,000-20,000 band on your shelves and in your assortment plan, and differentiate on brand, service and margin because that band now has 12 makers instead of 2.
What to track next
- Memory price trend in the next quarterly contract resets, up or down
- Next-quarter India shipment data after the 11% YoY June-quarter fall
- New 4G launches by additional brands in the Rs 10,000-20,000 band
- 5G list-price cuts or hikes in entry and mid-budget models
- 4G share in Counterpoint's 2026 updates versus the 13% forecast
Likely next moves
Our read of what comes next — analysis, not reported by the source.
- Handset makers already in the Rs 10,000-20,000 band are likely to keep or widen their 4G lineups, since the number of makers there has grown from 2 to 12.
- Rival brands that have been 5G-only in the mid-budget tier may add 4G variants to defend volume as 5G prices rise.
- Makers are likely to hold 5G prices up or trim specifications such as memory configurations, rather than absorb record memory costs.
- Retail and channel partners are likely to push 4G models more heavily as a way to keep sell-through going in a shrinking market.
- Counterpoint Research and other trackers may revise their 4G share forecasts if memory pricing or quarterly shipments move materially away from the 13% and 15% path.