Car demand boom after GST cut to fade from October 2026, Bernstein says

The counter-case

The case against this reading — not reported by the source.

The note treats a one-off tax cut as a demand pull-forward and projects it to fade, but that rests on a counterfactual nobody can observe. The 'about 726,000 units above the no-GST path' figure comes from a model, not from data. The 12.7% growth in FY27 and the 1.4% fall in FY28 are a small swing that sits well within normal forecast error for a single broker. A 1.4% dip against a boosted base is largely arithmetic, not evidence of a demand cliff. The headline says the boom fades from October 2026, yet the deck still has FY27 growing 12.7%. Cheaper cars widen the pool of first-time buyers, and that effect could persist. Other tailwinds could also offset the fade, including lower interest rates, income-tax relief, new model launches and low passenger vehicle penetration. If price hikes have already erased over 50-60% of the tax benefit, the GST cut may explain less of the 22% volume jump than the note implies, which weakens the pull-forward story. It also means the 'fade' may already be underway, or that other drivers are carrying demand.