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Crisil Sees Edible Oil Refiners' Revenue Growing 10-12% in FY27 as Consumption Nears 26.5 Million Tonnes
Our read
Refiners will probably gain more from higher volumes than from price, as the duty cut lets them trade lower realisations for 10-12% revenue growth while holding unit margins.
For operators
Crisil expects edible oil consumption to rise 2.7-3.0% to nearly 26.5 million tonnes in FY27 as the duty cut lowers prices, so grocery and staples retailers can plan festive volume gains in oils while second-half realisations may dip 5-6%.
Watch
Any government notice changing the 11% or 5.5% effective crude oil duty
The report,
Crisil Ratings expects India's edible oil refiners to post 10-12 per cent revenue growth this fiscal despite the import duty cut on crude oils. It projects consumption rising 2.7-3.0 per cent to about 26.5 million metric tonnes, with festive-season demand helped by lower prices.
- Refiner revenue growth this fiscal
- 10-12%
- Edible oil consumption, about
- 26.5 million tonnes
- up 2.7-3.0%
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Reported figures
From the report. Source details below
| Effective duty on crude palm and soybean oils: | 11 per cent from 16.5 per cent |
|---|---|
| Second-half realisation dip from duty cut: | 5-6 per cent |
Why it matters to operators and investors
Crisil sees edible oil refiners' FY27 revenue growing 10-12% with EBITDA per tonne steady at Rs 3,850-3,950, so the duty cut supports volumes and earnings even as second-half realisations may slip 5-6%.
What to watch next
- Second-half realisations falling past the 5-6% Crisil expects, by the Q3 FY27 results, would mean refiners are losing the margin cushion.
- Listed refiners' Q2 FY27 EBITDA per tonne against the ₹3,850-3,950 range
- Festive-season edible oil offtake reported by packers and retailers
- Crude palm, soybean and sunflower oil import volumes in the coming months