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Elara expects DMart and Trent sales up ~18% in Q2FY27, Nykaa revenue up 26.7%, as cost inflation threatens margins
Our read
Plan for Q2FY27 demand to hold up, with DMart and Trent sales expected near +18% and Nykaa revenue +26.7% on 42% fashion GMV growth.
Watch
Reported Q2FY27 DMart standalone sales growth versus the ~18% estimate
Ask next
How do DMart's results compare with its rivals?The report,
DMart's year-on-year standalone growth is backed by 7.5% like-for-like growth, FMCG price increases and lower quick-commerce discounting. Rising raw material, wage, utility and rental costs are likely to squeeze margins across categories, Elara Capital said.
- Nykaa expected consolidated revenue growth, Q2FY2726.7%
- DMart expected standalone sales growth, Q2FY2718%
- Trent expected standalone sales growth, Q2FY27around 18%
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Reported figures
From the report. Source details below
| DMart total stores: | 518 |
|---|---|
| Zudio stores: | 992 |
| Nykaa expected fashion GMV growth: | 42% |
| Radico Khaitan expected P&A volume growth in Q2FY27: | around 29% |
| Jubilant FoodWorks expected total stores: | 2,578 |
What to watch next
- Trent's revenue growth versus ~18% and any Zudio store count above 992
- Nykaa's reported revenue growth versus 26.7% and fashion GMV growth versus 42%
- Operating and gross margin prints and management commentary on wage, rental and utility costs
- Post-result broker target and earnings estimate revisions, and share price reaction
Likely next moves
Our read of what comes next — analysis, not reported by the source.
- DMart is likely to keep expanding its 518-store base at a steady pace and protect its low-price positioning, absorbing part of the cost inflation in margins rather than passing it all to shoppers.
- Trent is likely to keep adding Zudio outlets beyond the current 992 stores and lean on the format's value pricing, while cost pressure shows up mainly in store-level profitability commentary.
- Nykaa is expected to keep pushing fashion, where GMV growth of 42% is outpacing the rest of the business, and may use that mix shift to defend its margin profile.
- Brokers such as Elara may trim margin estimates while leaving revenue forecasts largely intact if managements flag persistent wage, rental and utility inflation.
- Value and fashion rivals may selectively raise prices or slow store rollouts if the same cost pressures squeeze their margins.
The counter-case
The case against this reading — not reported by the source.
This is a broker preview, not a result, and the headline's '+18%' reads like a reported fact. Three different models (grocery, value fashion, beauty e-commerce) landing on 18%, 18% and 26.7% looks like a top-down template extrapolating recent run-rates. Trent at ~18% would need growth to hold or re-accelerate while its like-for-like growth has been weak and most growth comes from Zudio store additions. DMart's growth is mostly new stores, with modest same-store growth, so 518 stores does not automatically give 18%. Nykaa's 26.7% rests on 42% fashion GMV growth, but fashion is a small share of GMV, so the figure says little about the beauty core. The decimal precision is false comfort. The margin-squeeze line (raw material, wage, utility, rental costs) is generic and could apply to any quarter. It is unquantified and ignores operating leverage, mix, and DMart's ability to absorb costs to protect price positioning. If the companies' own quarterly updates come in a few points off, the 'delta' is noise. A preview that mostly restates expected trends has little edge.
The source
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