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Elara expects retail universe revenue up 11.8% in Q2FY27; Vishal Mega Mart 17.5%, Metro Brands 13.2%
Our read
Navratri shifting into Q3FY27 means Elara expects apparel revenue down around 3.8% in Q2, so time festive stock and promotions for the next quarter and lean on footwear (up around 8.8%) and innerwear (up around 11%) to carry the September quarter.
Watch
Vishal Mega Mart same-store sales growth above Elara's near-6% in the Q2FY27 results would mean value demand held without Navratri's help.
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How do Vishal Mega Mart's results compare with its rivals?The report
Elara Securities expects its retail coverage universe to post around 11.8% year-on-year revenue growth in Q2FY27. Apparel revenue is seen falling around 3.8% as Navratri shifts to Q3FY27. Vishal Mega Mart is projected to grow 17.5%, and Metro Brands 13.2%.
- Vishal Mega Mart17.5%
- Metro Brands13.2%
- Retail universearound 11.8%
- Innerweararound 11%
- Footwear universearound 8.8%
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Reported figures
From the report. Source details below
| Vishal Mega Mart Q2FY27 same-store sales growth: | around 6% |
|---|
Why it matters to operators and investors
Elara's 11.8% YoY revenue growth forecast for its retail universe in Q2FY27 hides a wide spread, with Vishal Mega Mart at 17.5% and Metro Brands at 13.2% while apparel falls around 3.8% on festive timing, so a soft apparel print would reflect the calendar rather than demand.
What to watch next
- Vishal Mega Mart's EBITDA margin against Elara's 15.5% aggregate
- Apparel revenue decline wider than the 3.8% Elara expects
- Metro Brands revenue growth against the 13.2% estimate
- Management commentary on Navratri-led demand in Q3FY27
The counter-case
The case against this reading — not reported by the source.
This is one broker's forecast, not reported data, and the headline +11.8% hides a weak core. Apparel, the biggest discretionary category, is seen falling about 3.8%. The aggregate growth therefore depends on mix and on a few fast-expanding names such as Vishal Mega Mart (+17.5%), whose growth comes largely from new stores, since same-store sales are only about 6%. The apparel drop is blamed on Navratri moving into Q3FY27. That is a timing shift, not a demand gain, so any Q3 rebound is borrowed from Q2 and will not show real strength. If festive or wedding demand, weather or discretionary spending disappoint, the 11.8% could miss, and the 15.5% aggregate EBITDA margin looks fragile if discounting rises or new-store costs weigh. Broker previews are also often anchored to management guidance and tend to be revised after the results.
The source
First seen