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India’s Diwali silver buying forecast to rise 17–18% as high gold prices push shoppers to silver
Our read
Silver substitution is likely to support festive jewellery footfall, but stronger buying may change the sales mix more than it lifts average transaction values.
For operators
Prioritise silver displays, inventory and festive offers to capture shoppers shifting away from expensive gold, with Diwali silver buying forecast to rise 17–18%.
Watch
IBJA's reported Diwali silver buying versus its 17–18% growth forecast.
The report,
The India Bullion and Jewellers Association estimates 17- 18% growth in silver buying this Diwali as gold costs around Rs 1.5 lakh for 10 grams. SN Jewellers expects 40% of annual silver sales during the festive season.
- Forecast Diwali silver buying growth
- 17- 18%
- Gold price per 10 grams
- Rs 1.5 lakh
- Silver price per kg
- Rs 2.3 lakh
- SN Jewellers festive share of annual silver sales
- 40%
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Demand data
From the report. Source details below
| Silver price per kg: | Rs 2.3 lakh |
|---|---|
| Silver purchasable for Rs 1.5 lakh: | 650 grams |
What it says about consumers
Silver-exposed jewellers could benefit from the demand shift, but SN Jewellers’ expectation that the festive season will generate 40% of annual silver sales highlights seasonal concentration risk.
Next data points
- SN Jewellers' disclosed festive share of annual silver sales versus its 40% expectation.
- A widening or narrowing of the retail gold-to-silver price gap.
- Retailer disclosures of festive footfall and average transaction value.
- Announcements of expanded silver ranges or festive discounts.
The counter-case
The case against this reading — not reported by the source.
This is a buying forecast, not evidence of higher footfall. Existing jewellery shoppers may simply switch from gold to silver, potentially reducing transaction values without adding customers. If the 17–18% growth refers to spending rather than physical volumes, higher silver prices could explain part of it. SN Jewellers’ expected 40% festive-season sales share indicates seasonality, not necessarily incremental growth.
The source
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