India’s new-age economy is projected to reach $300B in revenue by FY31
Redseer expects India’s new-age economy to nearly triple from about $100 billion in FY26. Consumer goods, retail and leisure could contribute roughly $150 billion, while sector profitability is forecast to remain at a modest 2–3% margin.
What happened
Redseer Strategy Consultants · Redseer forecasts India’s new-age economy will reach $300 billion in revenue by FY31. Consumer goods, retail and leisure will
Key facts
- India's new-age economy revenue projected at around $300 billion by FY31, up from about $100 billion in FY26
- Expected annual growth of around 25% between FY26 and FY31
- Emerging technology-led sectors projected to grow around 26% annually
- Consumption-led consumer goods, retail and leisure sectors projected to reach about $150 billion by FY31
- Combined EBITDA improved from a $4.8 billion loss in FY23 to a $1.4 billion profit in FY25
- FY31 profit projected at $5-10 billion, or 2-3% margin
- Listed FMCG margins: 12-18%; IT services margins: 20-25%
Why this matters
Consumer goods, retail and leisure could represent roughly half of the projected $300B market, creating a strong case to target scalable acquisitions and partnerships with clear paths to margin improvement.
What to watch
- Quarterly growth in online retail, quick commerce, travel, food delivery and discretionary leisure spending.
- Contribution-margin improvement, delivery-cost trends and retail-media revenue share among leading platforms.
- Private-label penetration and gross-margin expansion at large consumer and retail platforms.
- Funding availability, IPO activity, down-rounds and merger activity across Indian new-age companies.
- Consumer inflation, rural income growth, urban employment and credit-card or digital-payment spending.
- Regulatory changes affecting e-commerce marketplaces, dark stores, gig workers, data use, foreign investment or platform discounting.
- Expansion pace and order-density metrics in Tier-2 and Tier-3 cities.
- Increase exposure to categories with repeat demand and attractive private-label potential, especially grocery, beauty, personal care, value fashion and home essentials.
- Build profit pools beyond product margin through retail media, subscriptions, fintech, fulfillment services and brand partnerships.
- Expand selectively into Tier-2 and Tier-3 cities using asset-light stores, franchise models, pickup points and localized assortments.
- Invest in demand forecasting, inventory placement and route optimization to offset fulfillment costs before pursuing aggressive geographic growth.
- Use the expected consolidation cycle to acquire niche brands, seller networks or regional logistics capabilities at disciplined valuations.
- Track unit economics by cohort and city; limit promotions that lift gross merchandise value without improving contribution margin.