On this page

India smartphone market braces for sharper H2 decline as rising prices squeeze entry-level demand

Our read

India smartphone units fall sharply in H2, but EMI-led trade-ups cushion revenue as entry-level demand gives way to premiumization.

For operators

Prepare for weaker entry-level smartphone traffic by emphasizing EMI plans, exchange offers, and premium upsell bundles as rising prices and softer discounts pressure H2 demand.

Watch

Share of sales financed through EMI, average installment tenure, loan approval rates and consumer delinquencies.

The report,

Rising memory costs and weaker discounts are expected to depress India smartphone shipments in H2 2026. Entry-level demand and online sales are under greatest pressure, while premiumisation, financing, EMI and exchange schemes are becoming more important for brands and retailers.

Newer report , , NDTV Profit : Smartphone brands raise India prices by up to Rs 14,000 as component costs climb

Read next

  1. Rising memory costs squeeze India’s sub-₹10,000 smartphone market, , Business Today
  2. Rising chip and memory costs threaten India’s entry-level smartphone affordability, , The Hindu BusinessLine
  • McCain Foods: 450+ employees
  • Apple: Up to Rs 15,000 instant cashback

Reported figures

From the report. Source details below

H2 2026 shipments projected to fall more than 15%
2026 full-year volumes projected at 128-130 million units versus 152 million in 2025
Q2 2026 shipments fell 11.1% year-on-year to 33.2 million units
H1 2026 shipments fell 7.9% to 64.2 million units
Online shipments fell 19.8%; offline shipments fell 3.6%
Vivo held 18.4% Q2 market share; Samsung 16.4%; Oppo 13.8%; Xiaomi 9.7%; realme 9.3%
Sub-$100 segment shipments fell 74.3%
$400-600 segment shipments grew 60.3%

Also in the report

  • Average selling price rose 14.4% year-on-year to $315 in Q2

Why it matters for the brand

Prioritize partnerships or acquisitions in consumer financing, trade-in ecosystems, and premium-device services, where demand resilience can offset a projected 15%+ market shipment decline.

What to track next

  • NAND and DRAM contract-price movement through Q3 2026 and whether OEMs announce another round of retail price increases.
  • Festive-season pre-bookings, online sale traffic and conversion rates versus 2025, especially for sub-$100 and $100-$150 devices.
  • Exchange penetration and average trade-in values for 4G devices, indicating whether upgrade incentives are overcoming price resistance.
  • E-commerce discount depth, bank-card subsidy availability and marketplace-funded promotion budgets.
  • Distributor inventory days, retailer reorder cadence and activation trends for smaller Android brands.
Show 1 more
  • Rupee movement against the US dollar and any import-duty or local-manufacturing policy changes affecting handset costs.

Likely next moves

Our read of what comes next — analysis, not reported by the source.

  • Expand no-cost EMI tenures, low-down-payment plans and device-protection bundles to reframe affordability around monthly payments rather than upfront price.
  • Redirect marketing and retail inventory from sub-$100 models toward $100-$200 5G devices with clear trade-up value, while maintaining a narrow set of hero entry SKUs.
  • Increase exchange payouts and guaranteed buyback offers for older 4G devices to stimulate replacement demand and secure used-device supply.
  • Recalibrate festive-season inventory commitments weekly, with tighter replenishment thresholds for entry-level Android models and online-only variants.
  • Protect channel economics through targeted retailer incentives and regional offers rather than broad national price cuts.
Show 1 more
  • Use component-cost hedging, specification rationalization and memory-capacity mix adjustments to preserve opening-price-point models where strategically necessary.

The source

Source Read the source at Financial Express

Published

First seen

By