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ITC hits 52-week low as Rs 9,437 crore block deal weighs; Citi says 75% of cigarette tax hike passed through
ITC has passed through 75 per cent of the cigarette tax increase via price hikes, Citi estimates, as shares hit a 52-week low of Rs 254.30 amid a Rs 9,436.90 crore block deal. Citi expects near-term cigarette volumes to stay under pressure.
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The numbers
Figures from Business Today,
| Citi target price: | Rs 300 |
|---|---|
| ITC share decline in calendar year 2026: | around 30 per cent |
| Block deal average price: | Rs 257.35 |
| Shares in block deal: | 36,66,95,297 |
| BAT stake in ITC: | 22.91 per cent |
Why it matters to operators and investors
Citi estimates 75% of the cigarette tax increase has already been passed on through price hikes, but it expects near-term cigarette volumes to stay under pressure, so retailers and distributors should plan for softer sell-through and tighter working capital on the category.
What to watch next
- Whether the stock closes above the Rs 257.35 block price or breaks below the Rs 254.30 low
- Cigarette volume growth in ITC's next quarterly results
- Further bulk or block deal filings in ITC shares
- Any change to Citi's Rs 300 target or other brokers' ratings
- Evidence in retail price checks that the cigarette price hikes are holding
Likely next moves
Our read of what comes next — analysis, not reported by the source.
- Citi is likely to keep its Rs 300 target for now, while continuing to flag cigarette volume pressure as the main near-term risk.
- ITC is likely to defend the roughly 75% pass-through of the cigarette tax increase and avoid discounting, accepting some volume loss to protect margins.
- Other brokerages may trim near-term cigarette volume estimates, leaving the stock range-bound until demand data improves.
- Institutions that took the block at an average Rs 257.35 may hold the stock or sell it down gradually, which would cap rebounds near that level.
- Rival tobacco and FMCG players may be slow to match further price increases, which would test how much of the tax ITC can keep passing on.
The source
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