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Lenskart block deal at 5.6% discount as Alpha Wave may sell 1.6%; brokerages see Q2 revenue up 30-34%
Our read
Kotak expects Lenskart's India business to grow 31% with a pre-IndAS Ebitda margin of 13.5%, which sets the growth and profitability benchmark that eyewear rivals will be measured against.
Watch
Q2 revenue growth above the 34% Elara and Kotak expect, in the September quarter results, would mean the block discount is supply-driven, not a demand warning.
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How do Lenskart's results compare with its rivals?The report
Elara Securities and Kotak Institutional Equities expect Lenskart's September quarter revenue to grow 34 per cent YoY, while JM Financial expects 30 per cent. Alpha Wave Ventures is also likely to sell up to 1.6 per cent stake at a Rs 640 floor price.
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Reported figures
From the report. Source details below
| Kotak pre-IndAS Ebitda margin estimate: | 13.5 per cent |
|---|---|
| JM Financial pre-Ind-AS Ebitda margin estimate: | 13.2 per cent |
| Kotak India business growth estimate: | 31 per cent YoY |
Why it matters to operators and investors
The Rs 640 block floor, a 5.6% discount, gives a live market reference price for Lenskart, and Alpha Wave's sell-down of up to 1.6% shows how an early backer is taking liquidity ahead of earnings.
What to watch next
- Block deal clearing price versus the ₹640 floor
- Final stake sold versus the 1.6% on offer
- Pre-IndAS Ebitda margin against Kotak's 13.5%
- India business growth against Kotak's 31%
Likely next moves
Our read of what comes next — analysis, not reported by the source.
- Alpha Wave Ventures is likely to complete the block close to the ₹640 floor, selling up to 1.6% rather than a larger tranche.
- Lenskart is likely to report September-quarter numbers that land inside the 30-34% revenue growth range brokerages have pencilled in.
- Elara, Kotak and JM Financial may adjust targets and estimates after the results, with margin and India growth drawing the most attention.
- Institutional investors are likely to take most of the block at the discount and may flip part of it if the results land well.
- Other pre-IPO holders may weigh their own sell-downs once the Alpha Wave block shows how much demand there is near ₹640.