On this page
Motilal Oswal keeps Buy on Delhivery with Rs 510 target as Express volumes jump 55% in 1QFY27
Delhivery appears more diversified than Shadowfax, with its largest customer at 19.2% of revenue in FY26, while Motilal Oswal estimates Meesho at ~40% of Shadowfax's volumes. The brokerage expects Express momentum to continue in 2QFY27.
The numbers
Figures from Moneycontrol
| Meesho delivered shipments in 1QFY27: | 481m |
|---|---|
| Meesho shipment growth in 1QFY27: | 37% |
| Estimated Shadowfax shipments in 1QFY27: | ~198m |
| Delhivery EBITDA CAGR over FY26-28: | 35% |
Why it matters to operators and investors
With Motilal Oswal estimating Meesho at ~40% of Shadowfax's ~198m shipments and Delhivery's largest customer at 19.2% of FY26 revenue, logistics scale is tied to a few anchor clients, which matters for any partnership or acquisition diligence.
What to watch next
- Delhivery's 2QFY27 Express volume growth versus the 55% YoY pace of 1QFY27
- Top-customer revenue share in the next filing versus 19.2% in FY26
- Quarterly EBITDA progress against the 35% CAGR path for FY26-28
- Shadowfax shipment count and any change in Meesho's ~40% share of its ~198m shipments
- Target-price revisions from other brokers relative to Rs 510
Likely next moves
Our read of what comes next — analysis, not reported by the source.
- Delhivery is likely to keep stressing Express volume growth and a broader customer mix on upcoming calls, to counter the concentration point behind its 19.2% top-customer share.
- Shadowfax may keep pursuing marketplace volume, given its estimated ~40% Meesho share of ~198m shipments, while trying to add non-marketplace customers.
- Other brokers are likely to benchmark their Delhivery estimates against the 55% Express growth and the 35% EBITDA CAGR framing, with some following Motilal Oswal's Buy stance.
- Large e-commerce shippers, Meesho among them, may keep splitting volumes across several logistics partners, which would sustain pricing pressure on third-party carriers.
- Motilal Oswal is likely to keep its Rs 510 target tied to execution on margins and customer mix, and to revisit it after the next quarterly print.
The counter-case
The case against this reading — not reported by the source.
The 55% Express volume jump looks strong, but volume is the easiest metric to buy in a price-led parcel market. Much of the growth probably comes from low-ticket, value e-commerce shipments, where realisation per parcel is thin and shippers have the bargaining power. The note itself shows the concentration risk: Delhivery's largest customer was 19.2% of FY26 revenue, and Meesho is estimated at ~40% of rival Shadowfax's ~198m shipments. A few marketplaces control the demand, so they can push down rates or split volumes between logistics providers, or move more of it in-house. The 35% EBITDA CAGR over FY26-28 depends on operating leverage and stable unit economics. If price competition forces Delhivery to give back some of its volume gains, that forecast is exposed. A Buy with a Rs 510 target is also a sell-side view that extrapolates a strong quarter, and a high base will make 55% growth hard to repeat.
The source
First seen