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Our read
Ather Energy will more likely than not see scooter demand hold, but rivals will cap its share gains.
For operators
With EV penetration at 7.9% in September (4% in FY26) and two-wheelers at 11.6%, auto retail and dealer operators should expect showroom and inventory mix to keep shifting toward EVs as petrol is up 8% since December 2025.
Watch
Two-wheeler EV penetration above the 11.6% estimated for September, in the next monthly registrations, would mean petrol-led demand holds and ICE scooter makers lose share.
The report: Nomura picks Ather, M&M, Hyundai as India's passenger-vehicle EV penetration hits 7.9% in September
Nomura estimated India's passenger vehicle EV penetration rose to 7.9 per cent in September 2026 from 4 per cent in FY26. Two-wheeler penetration reached 11.6 per cent. It named Ather Energy, Mahindra & Mahindra and Hyundai Motor India as preferred picks.
| Metric | FY26 | September 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| Passenger vehicle EV penetration | 4 per cent | 7.9 per cent |
| Two-wheeler EV penetration | 6.5 per cent | 11.6 per cent |
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Reported figures
From the report. Source details below
| Two-wheeler EV penetration, FY26: | 6.5 per cent |
|---|---|
| Scooter EV penetration, September 2026: | 25 per cent |
| Electric scooter break-even period versus ICE: | 2.4 years |
| Petrol price rise since December 2025: | 8 per cent |
| Delhi passenger vehicle EV adoption: | 21.9 per cent |
Why it matters to operators and investors
Nomura naming Ather, M&M and Hyundai Motor India as EV beneficiaries as penetration rises from 4% to 7.9% marks them as the scaled EV platforms that any strategic or partnership screen in the segment will benchmark against.
What to watch next
- Ather Energy's monthly registrations versus rivals in the next VAHAN data
- Petrol price moves against the 8% rise since December 2025
- Passenger-vehicle EV penetration against the 7.9% September estimate
- Ather Energy's gross margin and discounting in the next quarterly results
Likely next moves
Our read of what comes next — analysis, not reported by the source.
- Ather Energy is likely to use the petrol-price gap and the 2.4-year break-even in its marketing and retail expansion.
- Incumbent scooter makers and EV rivals may respond with sharper pricing or financing offers to defend share as penetration rises.
- Mahindra & Mahindra and Hyundai Motor India are likely to stress EV launches and capacity as passenger-vehicle penetration passes 7.9%.
- Lenders and captive finance arms may widen EV loan offers as the running-cost case becomes easier to underwrite.
- Expect other brokerages to revisit EV estimates, adding to the crowding in Nomura's three picks.
The counter-case
The case against this reading — not reported by the source.
The 7.9% figure is a single-month estimate for September 2026 set against a full-year FY26 average of 4%, so the near doubling may partly reflect the choice of months rather than a durable trend. September falls in the festive buying run-up, when launches, discounts and registration timing can distort the mix. Nomura's thesis also leans on petrol prices being up 8% since December 2025 and a 2.4-year e-scooter break-even. Both depend on fuel prices holding, on the assumptions behind the break-even (running distance, subsidy, financing cost, resale value) and on incentives staying in place. If petrol eases or subsidies taper, the demand case weakens quickly. The three picks also have very different exposure to the theme. Ather is a pure-play two-wheeler EV maker facing price competition from larger incumbents. M&M and Hyundai Motor India have far smaller EV shares of their revenue, so passenger-vehicle EV momentum may not move their earnings much. The note reads more like a sector call dressed up with a data point than evidence that these stocks will outperform.