Nuvama flags rising risk of Chinese imports undercutting Make in India
Nuvama warns that Chinese goods displaced by US tariffs could increasingly flow into India, lowering consumer prices while intensifying pressure on domestic manufacturers. The analysis calls for stronger production incentives, public investment and more productive corporate credit to build manufacturing scale.
What happened
Nuvama warns that Chinese exports displaced by US tariffs could increasingly flow into India, benefiting consumers through cheaper goods but pressuring domestic
Key facts
- China accounted for about 28% of global manufacturing in 2024 and 13% of global consumption
- China's estimated 2025 current account surplus: about $700 billion
- India's 12-month goods trade deficit through June 2026: about $351 billion
- Chinese exports to India in FY26: about $132 billion
- India's exports to China in FY26: about $19 billion
- India's bilateral goods deficit with China in FY26: roughly $113 billion
- Average PLI spending estimated at about Rs 115 billion in FY25-FY26
Why this matters
Prioritize partnerships, acquisitions or supply-chain investments that build local manufacturing scale and differentiated products less vulnerable to low-cost Chinese imports.