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Nuvama: FMCG demand to hold despite El Niño; Bajaj Consumer seen at about 25% revenue growth in July-September
Our read
Bajaj Consumer will more likely than not report EBITDA growth well ahead of revenue growth for July-September, as steady demand and easing costs outweigh El Niño worries.
For operators
Nuvama's Abneesh Roy expects FMCG demand to stay resilient despite El Niño, so operators can plan July-September volumes with confidence while protecting food and dairy margins, which face pressure.
Watch
Bajaj Consumer EBITDA growth below Nuvama's 46% in the July-September results would mean cost relief is thinner than assumed and the margin rebound is slipping.
The report
Nuvama's Abneesh Roy expects Bajaj Consumer to report around 25% revenue growth and 46% EBITDA growth for July-September, with Nestlé India in the 20% range. He sees FMCG demand staying resilient despite El Niño, while food and dairy margins face pressure.
| Metric | Bajaj Consumer | Nestlé India |
|---|---|---|
| Expected revenue growth | around 25% | 20% range |
| Expected EBITDA growth | 46% | 20% range |
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Why it matters to operators and investors
Nuvama forecasts Bajaj Consumer revenue growth of about 25% and EBITDA growth of 46% for July-September, with Nestlé India in the 20% range on both, so earnings could surprise on the upside even as food and dairy margins stay under pressure.
What to watch next
- Revenue growth versus the ~25% forecast in the reported quarter
- Gross margin trend and commentary on input costs in the results call
- Nestlé India's revenue and EBITDA growth against the 20% range
- Management's comments on rural demand and El Niño in the next-quarter outlook
The counter-case
The case against this reading — not reported by the source.
This is a single broker's forecast, not a reported result, and the headline figures look stretched. About 25% revenue growth for Bajaj Consumer, a small hair-oil and personal-care company in a mature, low-volume category, and 20% for Nestlé India, which usually grows at a much lower rate, are likely driven by a weak prior-year base, price increases or one-off timing effects rather than underlying demand. The 46% EBITDA growth is probably off a thin margin base, so a small cost swing could easily miss it. The note also contradicts itself. It calls demand resilient, yet it flags food and dairy margin pressure, and it puts Nestlé's EBITDA growth only in line with revenue. That means little operating leverage. El Niño's main effect on rural incomes and food inflation tends to arrive after the July-September quarter, so this quarter says little about whether demand will hold. Previews like this are routinely missed, and one analyst's call should not move the narrative.
The source
First seen