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Telecom Q2 preview: Elara expects Jio to add 7.2 mn and Airtel 4.1 mn mobile subscribers in September quarter
Elara Securities forecasts Reliance Jio's ARPU at ₹218 in Q2FY27, against ₹267 for Bharti Airtel. Jio Platforms may list on October 28.
The numbers
Figures from Fortune India,
| Jio Prime membership fee: | ₹300 |
|---|---|
| Jio Platforms possible listing valuation: | ₹13-15 lakh crore |
| Airtel market capitalisation: | ₹11.1 lakh crore |
| Vodafone Idea subscribers added, July-August: | 0.75 million |
Why it matters to operators and investors
Elara's estimate of 7.2 mn Jio and 4.1 mn Airtel subscriber additions in the September quarter points to steady SIM activations and recharge traffic, so telecom-linked retail counters and handset sellers should plan for it, while Vodafone Idea's 0.75 million additions in July-August show it is still adding customers.
What to watch next
- Jio's reported net adds against the 7.2 mn estimate
- Airtel's reported net adds and ARPU against 4.1 mn and ₹267
- Jio's ARPU against the ₹218 estimate
- Confirmation of the 28 October listing date, and any pricing within the ₹13-15 lakh crore range
- Vodafone Idea's September-quarter subscriber trend after 0.75 million adds in July-August
Likely next moves
Our read of what comes next — analysis, not reported by the source.
- Jio Platforms is likely to frame its Q2 subscriber and ARPU numbers around the 28 October listing, stressing scale and the gap to peers rather than short-term profit.
- Airtel is likely to lead with ARPU, expected at ₹267 against Jio's ₹218, to argue that its customer mix is better even if Jio adds more subscribers.
- Vodafone Idea may point to its 0.75 million July-August additions as evidence of stabilisation, and may stress this when discussing its funding needs with lenders.
- Institutional investors are likely to price Jio Platforms mainly off the Q2 ARPU and subscriber trend, and may push back if the numbers imply less than the ₹13-15 lakh crore valuation.
- Brokerages are likely to revise their Q2FY27 estimates and their listing-day valuation views once the actual results are out.