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UPI volume slips 1.8% to 24.07 billion in September as a 0.4% MDR on P2M payments above Rs 2,000 nears for October 15
UPI processed 24.07 billion transactions worth Rs 29.37 lakh crore in September, with volumes down 1.8% from August. Average transaction size fell to Rs 1,012. A 0.4% MDR applies from October 15 on certain P2M transactions above Rs 2,000.
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Channel facts
Figures from Medianama
| Volume growth year on year: | 22.5% |
|---|---|
| P2M transactions in September: | 15.22 billion |
| P2M value above Rs 2,000 in September: | Rs 5.94 lakh crore |
| Daily UPI transactions in September: | 802.28 million |
What it means for online and offline
A 0.4% MDR on high-ticket P2M payments reopens UPI monetisation, which should raise the value of merchant-acquiring, checkout-orchestration and payment-routing assets, but who captures the fee between banks, PSPs and merchants is still unsettled, so price targets on the first post-October 15 data.
Signals to track
- October NPCI data: whether volume rebounds above September's 24.07 billion and the daily average moves back above about 802 million
- Value growth against the Rs 29.37 lakh crore September base, especially any slowdown in large-ticket P2M flows
- Any official notice that narrows, exempts or defers the MDR before or after October 15
- Reports of merchant surcharges or UPI-discount removals at major checkouts for purchases above Rs 2,000
- Year-on-year growth holding near or falling below September's 22.5%
Likely next moves
Our read of what comes next — analysis, not reported by the source.
- Large retail and e-commerce merchants are likely to model the 0.4% MDR by ticket size and decide between absorbing it, repricing or adding payment-mode incentives before October 15.
- UPI apps and payment aggregators may push merchant-side pricing changes and settlement updates to tighten their terms, since they now have a revenue line on Rs 2,000+ P2M flows.
- Card networks and wallet providers may market to merchants on above-Rs 2,000 baskets, arguing their all-in cost is now closer to UPI's.
- Expect the payments regulator or NPCI to issue clarifications on which merchant categories and transactions fall under the MDR if confusion grows after the start date.
- Customers are likely to keep using UPI for everyday small payments, but some may split or shift large purchases to other instruments where merchants surcharge.
The source
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