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India's scooter market hit EV tipping point in September as electric share rose to 33%
Our read
Electric will hold about a third of scooter sales, with TVS keeping first place while Bajaj's Chetak ramp narrows the gap.
For operators
With electric models at 33% of September scooter registrations, up from 22% a year earlier, dealers and brand teams should plan EV stock, financing and service capacity now, especially as Bajaj lifts Chetak output to 62,000 in October from around 48,500 in September.
Watch
TVS iQube monthly units below the 54,000 reported for September, in October Vahan data, would mean Bajaj's 62,000 Chetak push is taking the electric lead from TVS.
The report
Electric models made up around 33 percent of India's scooter registrations in September, up from 22 percent a year earlier, per Vahan data. TVS iQube led with more than 54,000 units, and Bajaj plans to raise Chetak output to 62,000 units in October.
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Reported figures
From the report. Source details below
| Electric two-wheeler registrations in September: | 2.07 lakh units |
|---|---|
| TVS iQube share of electric two-wheeler registrations: | 26 percent |
| Bajaj Chetak registrations in September: | around 48,500 units |
| PM E-DRIVE maximum subsidy per vehicle: | Rs 5,000 |
Why it matters for the brand
With scooters past the EV tipping point at 33% share and PM E-DRIVE in place until 31 March 2028, there is a window to look at partnerships in charging, battery, financing and service that serve the leaders' growing volumes.
What to track next
- Electric share of scooter registrations in October versus September's 33%
- Chetak October registrations against the 62,000 Bajaj planned
- Any change to PM E-DRIVE terms before its 31 March 2028 end
- Rival price cuts or new low-cost electric scooter launches during the festive season
Likely next moves
Our read of what comes next — analysis, not reported by the source.
- TVS Motor Company is likely to defend iQube's 26% share of electric two-wheelers with festive offers and variant pricing rather than cede the lead.
- Bajaj Auto is likely to push Chetak toward its 62,000-unit October plan, using dealer expansion and financing schemes to close the gap with iQube.
- Ather, Ola Electric and Hero's Vida may answer with discounts or cheaper variants as the two leaders absorb more of the electric scooter pool.
- Petrol scooter makers such as Honda and Suzuki may speed up their own electric launches as electric share of scooter registrations nears a third.
- Lenders are likely to widen EV two-wheeler financing as PM E-DRIVE support, running to 31 March 2028, gives buyers a clearer horizon.
The counter-case
The case against this reading — not reported by the source.
"Tipping point" is a strong claim built on one month. September is a festive pre-buying month, when EV makers push discounts and inventory into the channel. A 33% share in a single month does not show a durable shift. The numbers also mix denominators. The 33% is a share of scooter registrations, while the 26% iQube figure is a share of all 2.07 lakh electric two-wheelers, which includes motorcycles. The two cannot be read together without care. The GST cut on small petrol two-wheelers, which took effect around 22 September, could lift petrol scooter sales from October and push the EV share back down. Bajaj's 62,000 Chetak figure is a production plan, not a sales result. It depends on supply holding up and on demand surviving the end of the festive period. The PM E-DRIVE date in the deck suggests continued support, but incentives for two-wheelers may taper or end earlier than the scheme's overall end date. If so, the pricing advantage behind the surge could shrink.
The source
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