On this page
JM Financial picks Leela, Lemon Tree, ITC Hotels as hotel RevPAR seen rising 12–13% in Q2 FY27
JM Financial expects hotel industry RevPAR to grow 12–13% year-on-year in Q2 FY27, driven by leisure, MICE and corporate demand. It forecasts Leela revenue growth of 22% and names Leela, Lemon Tree and ITC Hotels as preferred picks.
The numbers
Figures from Mint,
| Leela same-store RevPAR growth expected in Q2 FY27: | 15–16% |
|---|---|
| Lemon Tree occupancy improvement expected: | around 370 basis points |
| Auspicious wedding dates in FY27: | more than 90 days |
Why it matters to operators and investors
With JM Financial expecting industry RevPAR to rise 12–13% year-on-year in Q2 FY27 on leisure, MICE and corporate demand, hotel operators have room to hold rate discipline and prepare inventory for the more than 90 auspicious wedding dates in FY27.
What to watch next
- Q2 FY27 results from Leela, Lemon Tree and ITC Hotels, compared with the brokerage's estimates
- Reported industry RevPAR growth against the 12–13% year-on-year range
- Lemon Tree's occupancy gain versus the roughly 370 basis point forecast
- Management commentary on wedding-season bookings for the 90+ auspicious FY27 dates
- Revisions to other brokers' hotel estimates or target prices after the results
The counter-case
The case against this reading — not reported by the source.
This is a single broker's forecast, not reported data, and the 12–13% RevPAR growth is a point estimate that could easily miss. Q2 (July–September) is seasonally the softest quarter for Indian hotels because of the monsoon, so strong percentage growth can come off a thin base and says little about earnings power. The headline does not separate occupancy from average room rate. If growth leans on price increases, it is more vulnerable to demand fatigue, outbound-travel substitution and corporate belt-tightening. The company-level numbers may also flatter the picture. Leela's 22% revenue growth may come from new keys, renovated inventory or management-fee mix rather than like-for-like demand. Lemon Tree's roughly 370 basis point occupancy gain may mostly reflect newer hotels ramping up from a low starting point. The 90-plus auspicious wedding dates in FY27 are a second-half factor and do nothing for Q2. A date count is also not a demand measure, because weddings cluster and can shift with budgets and venue supply. Finally, if the three picks have already re-rated, even a correct forecast may be largely priced in, leaving little upside and exposing the stocks to any shortfall.
The source
First seen