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Premium products to hit 35-36% of India's IMFL segment in 3-4 years, says ISWAI
ISWAI expects premium products' share of India's IMFL segment to rise to 35-36 per cent in the next three-four years from over 32 per cent now. The India-UK FTA, effective from July, is making bulk Scotch imports cheaper for Indian blenders.
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The numbers
Figures from ET Small Business
| Premium share of IMFL three-four years ago: | around 29 per cent |
|---|---|
| Bulk Scotch share of UK Scotch imports: | 79 per cent |
| Indian alcoholic beverage market value in 2025: | Rs 6.2 lakh crore |
| Total beverage alcohol volumes: | 8,435 lakh cases |
| Volume CAGR 2022-2025: | 4.9 per cent |
| Projected volume CAGR through 2030: | 3.9 per cent |
Why it matters for the brand
With premium's share of IMFL projected to rise from over 32% to 35-36% in 3-4 years while volumes grow at only 3.9% CAGR through 2030 (4.9% in 2022-2025), shift range, shelf space and promotions toward premium tiers, and use cheaper bulk Scotch imports under the India-UK FTA, effective from July, to protect margins.
What to track next
- Bulk Scotch import data in the months after July showing a clear rise in volumes
- Listed liquor makers reporting premium and above-premium mix gains in quarterly results
- State excise policy or price-band changes that absorb or amplify the FTA's cost benefit
- Industry volume growth tracking above or below the 3.9% CAGR projected through 2030
- Premium share of IMFL moving past 32% in ISWAI's next update
Likely next moves
Our read of what comes next — analysis, not reported by the source.
- Indian blenders are likely to raise bulk Scotch purchases for blended premium brands as the FTA, effective from July, lowers import costs.
- Large IMFL makers are likely to put more launches, marketing and distribution effort into premium tiers, the segment ISWAI expects to take 35-36% of IMFL.
- Scotch exporters may step up bulk and finished-goods supply to India, treating the FTA as a way to win share from domestic whisky.
- State excise authorities may revisit pricing and duty structures as premium share rises, which would decide how much of the import saving reaches consumers.
- ISWAI is likely to keep promoting the premiumisation story and press for further trade and tax changes, citing its 3.9% volume CAGR outlook through 2030 as the case for a maturing, value-led market.
The counter-case
The case against this reading — not reported by the source.
The headline reads as a trend extrapolation from an industry lobby, not a forecast with new evidence. Premium share rose from about 29% to over 32% in roughly three to four years. The projection of 35-36% over the same span is the same pace of about 3 points, so nothing in it implies acceleration. Total volume growth is expected to slow, from a 4.9% CAGR in 2022-2025 to 3.9% through 2030. If the market is slowing, the premium gain may come from trading up by a shrinking base of drinkers or from price inflation pushing brands across band thresholds. That would be nominal premiumisation, not real mix improvement. The India-UK FTA is a cost tailwind for blenders, not proof of demand. Cheaper bulk Scotch only lifts premium share if the savings are passed on, or if they fund better products. Blenders may keep the margin or use it to defend against rivals. State excise structures, state-level pricing rules and retail-licence limits, which actually set shelf prices in India, are not touched by the trade deal. The tariff cut is also phased, so the near-term effect is smaller than the 'cheaper imports' framing suggests.
The source
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