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Urban India's festive spending seen falling 6% to ₹1.97 lakh crore in 2026, LocalCircles survey finds
Our read
Festive spending is more likely than not to finish near the survey's ₹1.97 lakh crore, led by apparel and funded by savings, with jewellery and big-ticket items lagging.
For operators
Urban festive spend is seen falling 6% to ₹1.97 lakh crore, so store teams should weight festive inventory and promotions towards clothing, footwear and accessories (72% of planned purchases) and appliances and furniture (45%), and plan for fewer jewellery buyers (6%).
Watch
Clothing buyers below the 72% who planned to, in the post-Diwali poll, would mean intent is not converting and apparel sellers face deeper discounting.
The report,
LocalCircles found urban households spent ₹2.10 lakh crore last festive season, with inflation and tighter budgets now weighing on discretionary spending. Clothing, footwear and accessories lead planned purchases at 72%, while only 6% plan to buy jewellery.
down 6%
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Demand data
From the report. Source details below
| Households planning home appliances and furniture spend: | 45% |
|---|---|
| Households planning to use savings: | 83% |
| Retail inflation in September: | 5.54% |
Next data points
- Share of households using savings against the 83% planned, in the follow-up poll
- Retail inflation print versus September's 5.54%
- Festive-quarter commentary from apparel and appliance retailers on footfall and conversion
- Jewellery sales commentary against the 6% who planned to buy
Likely next moves
Our read of what comes next — analysis, not reported by the source.
- LocalCircles is likely to publish a post-Diwali follow-up poll that tests how much of the planned spending actually happened.
- Apparel and footwear retailers are likely to lead festive promotions, since these categories top planned purchases at 72%.
- Appliance and furniture sellers may lean on easy-payment and exchange offers to convert the 45% who plan to buy, as most buyers intend to pay from savings.
- Jewellers are likely to report soft footfall and may push low-ticket or lightweight designs, with only 6% of households planning a purchase.
- Consumer lenders may see subdued festive credit demand, as 83% of respondents plan to fund spending from savings.
The counter-case
The case against this reading — not reported by the source.
The headline treats a stated-intent poll as if it were measured demand. LocalCircles surveys are opt-in and online, so respondents skew toward digitally active, price-sensitive and often grievance-minded households. The ₹1.97 lakh crore total is an extrapolation from a few thousand answers to all urban India. Its precision (a 6% fall from ₹2.10 lakh crore) is not supported by the method, and the gap is likely within the margin of error. Intent surveys also routinely understate actual festive outcomes. Households often say they will spend less, then buy anyway on EMIs, buy-now-pay-later, discounts and last-minute sales. The 83% who plan to use savings could just as easily signal resilient balance sheets as stress. The 6% jewellery figure may reflect high gold prices cutting volumes while value spent holds up, so it says little about weak demand. The category ranking (72% clothing, 45% appliances) shows what people plan to buy, not how much they will spend, so it does not support a footfall conclusion. Using September retail inflation of 5.54% as the explanation is also weak, because the survey does not link inflation to the spending cut.